數字人民幣：中國經濟復蘇和未來全球經濟領導力的關鍵
導語
數字人民幣將極大驅動中國數字經濟的發展，使中國擺脫疫情和全球經濟危機的影響，開啟復蘇進程，並在未來成為全球無可爭議的經濟強國。
拉至底部，閱讀英文原文
我們身處一個非同尋常的時代👨🏿🎨，新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情（下稱“疫情”）於2020年初暴發🧗♂️👨🏽🎓，並演變成了一場全球“黑天鵝”事件，給全球社會造成巨大的痛苦和沖擊。疫情使本已暗流湧動的經濟雪上加霜🚄，在全世界範圍內可能會引發一場波及所有行業和社會階層的金融危機。面對這一極為艱巨的挑戰🤾🏽🐾，中國做出了有效和令人欽佩的應對🖌，推行了史無前例的防控措施✋🏻🍱。
這些積極措施非常有效地防止了疫情在中國的指數級傳播👫🏻。然而，中國為此付出了巨大的代價🔓，疫情造成的生產力損失和長期經濟收縮尚未得到充分評估。隨著勞動力流動、交通運輸👏🏽、供應鏈和零售活動在全國範圍內受疫情影響嚴重，中國的采購經理人指數（PMI）已經降至歷史最低點。大型企業和中小企業都面臨著慘淡的前景🍸，三分之二的調查受訪企業（甚至包括海底撈等資源豐富的大型企業）表示它們手頭的現金不足維持幾個月的運營。大量經濟部門將面臨系統性關閉，加之社會最脆弱的部門無法得到信貸支持，可能會導致全球有史以來最嚴重的經濟衰退。盡管在2020年4月初7️⃣，中國已經開始放松旅行限製👩🚀，企業也開始恢復經營😩👩🏼⚖️，但未來一段時間刺激中國經濟的全面復蘇仍是一項巨大的挑戰。
應對疫情下的經濟衰退🤷♀️，中央政府調控經濟的“軍火庫”中可動用的一項關鍵潛在“武器”是由中國人民銀行在2019年底宣布的數字人民幣（Digital RMB）。作為由二十國集團（G20）成員國發行的首個央行數字貨幣（CBDC），數字人民幣或將立即成為一種規模最大的、完全由法定貨幣背書的全球性數字貨幣。事實證明在這個機緣巧合的歷史時點推出數字人民幣，可以為中國人民銀行提供一種以新技術加持的強大的貨幣政策和財政政策工具，以此來有效地刺激經濟。
央行數字貨幣具備多重優越性
央行數字貨幣（CBDC）代表一種電子法定負債，發行國的中央銀行可用它來進行支付結算。電子貨幣的概念以實時全額清算系統(real time gross settlement，RTGS)的形式存在了幾十年🌪，RTGS可以調節商業銀行在央行持有的準備金余額。就央行數字貨幣而言♠️，央行可能會發行具有普遍可獲得性的法定貨幣，成為可供普通民眾使用的支付方式🕝，而不僅僅是商業銀行的結算工具。正如中國人民銀行此前表示，推出數字人民幣的最初設想是取代M0貨幣供應🧗🏼，即流通中的票據及其他容易轉換成現金的資產。
貨幣的三個特點是作為記賬單位、價值儲存和交換媒介。就這三個關鍵屬性而言🧑🏻🌾，數字貨幣比起實物形式的貨幣及其他相關貨幣工具更具優越性。目前，當普通人想用央行貨幣來儲存價值和交換媒介時，唯一不會產生信用風險的可用選項就是紙幣。因此🤹🏿♂️💇🏻，人們要承擔安全處理和儲存紙幣的費用，如清點現金、存入銀行賬戶🤷🏿。作為一個穩定的計賬單位和儲值工具，數字人民幣在儲值方面更為安全，因為它是由央行直接發行的法定貨幣，並不存在與私營企業支付平臺或銀行賬戶相關聯的風險，後者都可能存在違約風險。作為交易中介，數字人民幣可以實現無摩擦、低成本的交易🛕𓀂，也可進行點對點交易，如手機的電子錢包可進行點對點的數字交易。作為一種幾乎不需要成本的交易媒介，數字人民幣將大大提高金融交易的結算效率和安全性🚼，不論是零售交易還是跨境支付⌛️。
數字人民幣改善市場效率
數字人民幣能有效地將數字化存款的高效性和點對點現金交易的附加能力結合起來。由於中國現有的移動支付和其他數字支付系統的主導地位，中國已經基本實現了無現金化。有了數字人民幣🕙，就可以包含無風險的法定貨幣，從而在國內實現貨幣和支付的完全數字化。如果數字人民幣最終也納入銀行存款，這些經濟效益將會更加顯著，在這種情況下🧛🏿♀️，數字人民幣可能會降低商業銀行信貸中介的規模。例如🥉，由英國央行(Bank of England)開發的模型顯示，由於交易成本、實際利率以及扭曲性稅收的降低🦒，央行數字貨幣發行量占GDP30%的總量效應，GDP將有可能永久性地提高3%。
同時，把數字人民幣引入整個生態系統將為無現金支付帶來一個必要的替代選項👩🏿🦰。目前中國的無現金支付由微信支付和支付寶雙頭壟斷，兩者的綜合市場份額超過線上零售支付交易總量的96%➕。數字人民幣的引入可以使銀行和其他金融機構參與競爭🧓🏿，成為可替代的金融服務提供商，這對於構建一個穩健📋、多元的支付生態系統是有益的。由此產生的金融部門也將變得更有競爭力，並為終端用戶提供更多的實際益處🪱。這也意味著現有的第三方支付系統將經歷一次重組，將已經設立的金融機構納入其中🙇🏻，並為該行業的監管創造更為有效的機會，降低金融系統的整體風險🍢。事實上，隨著法定貨幣的數字化，大數據分析和區塊鏈相結合的信息技術將有更多協同增效的機會👩🏼🍳🙋🏻♀️。交易的整個歷史記錄將被公開，為政策製定者提供大量的數據，用以監察市場中的不良參與者，或衡量經濟受到沖擊或政策變化時的反應。這種數據驅動和實時的模式🧑🏿🌾🕧，將顯著提升行業內實時監測和監管的能力👱♂️。
值得一提的是，數字人民幣的支付效率將為低收入家庭和小型企業帶來最明顯的益處👙，而這些家庭和企業往往是經濟衰退中承受能力最脆弱的⏮。低收入家庭的支出通常嚴重依靠現金🫰，而小型企業在處理現金、信用卡💿、借記卡等支付的交換/交易費用方面花費巨大💹。鑒於數字人民幣的最初的重點是支持小額零售交易，並獨立於國家的銀行存款🤎，它將為那些未充分獲得銀行服務的群體提供有效率🐯、有彈性的金融服務🔘。數字人民幣可以降低大量交易成本，並通過免除銀行賬戶的需要💧，從根本上提高農村和無銀行賬戶人口的金融普惠性🆖。對這類群體而言，數字人民幣還提供持有生息貨幣，並通過網上銀行獲得小額貸款和信貸安排的可能性♎️。在全國範圍內推廣數字人民幣，將使未被金融服務覆蓋的社會群體尤為受益，其中包括約8億的中國農村人口。
因此🎅🏼，引入數字人民幣可以通過提升效率和提高社會最脆弱群體的生產率🕓，顯著提振經濟增長🛂。由於交易變得更高效，貨幣的流通速度也會大大提高🥳🤔，從而鼓勵消費、促進貿易和經濟活動。法定貨幣的數字化也會使更大比例的貨幣供應得以核算，這反過來又為更多的大數據創造了條件，如對低違約率的小額貸款進行信用風險分析🏃🏻。這將大大改善現有系統向服務不足者提供的貸款和信貸安排。例如，對於許多中小企業和私營企業來說🧑💻，目前獲得信貸的唯一途徑是影子貸款市場🧏♂️，這對監管者而言是完全不透明的，導致出現層層中間商以高息尋租。引入數字人民幣可以避免這些可能導致系統性危機的信貸供求市場動態。
數字人民幣還被設計成筆名或匿名的（因而也是偽私有的）。簡言之👩🏻🦽➡️，它不需要任何銀行卡或者關聯銀行賬戶↔️，甚至不需要互聯網連接，就可進行小規模的數字貨幣轉賬。這些數字現金將被保存在一個特定用途的數字錢包中🫥。這使得數字人民幣可替代且無須任何基礎設施，有別於支付寶、蘋果支付（Apple Pay）、環球銀行金融電信協會（SWIFT）等其他任何支付和匯款系統。同樣，數字人民幣可以直接服務那些無法獲得傳統金融服務的群體🦕。較大的交易可能需要更高級別的KYC/AML（了解你的客戶/反洗錢）認證🔜，並需要監測賬戶或錢包法定貨幣上下通道來跟蹤，這與傳統銀行業的現有監控類似。因此，數字人民幣可以降低避稅、洗錢以及其他非法活動的風險。從長遠來看👏🏽，這將引導被挪用的資金重新流向生產性經濟部門🫙。
數字人民幣成為貨幣政策工具和經濟刺激渠道
除了對支付效率的積極影響，數字人民幣對銀行資金脫媒和改善貨幣政策傳導機製的潛在影響巨大🧝🏽，為中國人民銀行提供了一個系統、透明的政策渠道🙎🏼♂️。它將賦予中國人民銀行強有力的新工具，使其在實施貨幣政策時，能夠更直接地與實體經濟聯系起來👩🏼🍳，並使得央行對經濟調控更精準有效🙋🏻♂️。由於數字人民幣是可編程的🏩，我們就有機會通過數字創新來實現全新形式的智能貨幣😒。這些功能可能包括多種形式的元數據和信息處理🧔♀️，這或許將使智能合約支持的自動交易執行成為可能。相比現在的靜態貨幣👩🏻🎤，這些新型功能將更好地促進交易和有效交互👩🏽🎨。其中一項創新是生息數字人民幣，它能成為一種真正安全的儲值手段👨🦼。這種數字人民幣功能可能有別於銀行存款，也不可替代，為有效部署貨幣政策和財政政策提供了另一種政策工具。數字人民幣也可被用作平抑商業周期波動的措施，即以逆周期的方式控製數字貨幣的發行量或價格來實現。
中國人民銀行數字貨幣研究所所長穆長春表示，數字人民幣最初不會承擔利息👩🏻⚖️。然而，長期以來👨🏿🌾，許多經濟學家都強烈主張，為了使其成為更有用的交易媒介🧠，政府發行的貨幣在理想狀態下應該與其他無風險資產具有相同的收益率。而傳統紙幣是無法實現這些概念的，因此現代貨幣的設計是為了穩定通縮，而不是維持真正的價格穩定。當我們有了數字貨幣，中國央行就能創造一種真正穩定的儲值工具，它不會因通脹而隨著時間流逝貶值🦦。因此，升值/附息的數字人民幣可以提供一種最終穩定的記賬單位和安全儲值工具🤸🏼♀️，這將有助於數字人民幣成為全球公認的交易媒介。隨著時間的推移，相對於一籃子價格指數/消費者物價指數⚙️，數字人民幣的實際價值會保持穩定，從而產生一種具有基本購買力穩定性的新工具。
要確保數字貨幣的價格真正穩定👳🏿♀️🟥，與當前盯住通脹預測的做法有本質上的不同🕵🏽♀️。目前🌮，全球多數央行的貨幣政策包括了通脹率在2%左右的目標🧜🏽♂️。在全球金融危機後，一些經濟學家甚至主張提高通脹目標☝🏿，為貨幣政策的靈活性提供更多空間🉑。名義利率的下限一直是維持正通脹緩沖的主要動機🧜♀️🐽。有了生息的數字人民幣🥰，就沒有必要維持任何通脹緩沖，因為中國央行可以直接實現購買力穩定👩👩👧。因此👨🍳，數字人民幣的生息功能將有助於實現更強的宏觀經濟穩定3️⃣🙋🏿♂️。
此外，量化寬松（QE）在此次疫情危機下被廣泛討論或使用🈚️，當有必要推行量化寬松時，數字人民幣也有可能提供貨幣政策和財政政策的直接傳導🟨，有能力選擇性地繞過銀行這個效率低下的信貸中介😂。2007年次貸危機以來👩👩👧👧，全球主要經濟體都大規模推行了量化寬松刺激，導致信貸配置效率低下，對刺激實體經濟增長的作用有限。量化寬松政策是通過銀行來實施的，因此刺激計劃的收益會不平等地分配給那些更具流通渠道的機構，即銀行👦🏻🆖、國有企業和大公司。此外，在這種情況下🏞，資本之所以流向銀行♜，是因為金融危機的根源表面上在於銀行的償付能力及投資者對金融體系穩定性的信心🧑🦼➡️。人們認為危機始於金融部門的投資及不良經營行為，這反過來又影響了實體經濟。量化寬松旨在充實銀行準備金，重建人們對銀行體系償付能力的信任。即使如此🏋🏻♀️，在美國，全社會只有最富有的1%的人可獲得寬松信貸的便利渠道，這已嚴重加劇了收入不平等，破壞了社會穩定。銀行和企業利用這種容易獲得的信貸，系統性地啟動了大規模股票回購，本質上是利用會計手段將財富集中在公司高管和股東手中🪺，但不會轉化為更多切實的經濟增長🤽🏻。這就進一步導致了股票和債券市場的過度行為🤝，時至今日已經蔓延到長期債務周期尾聲👲🏽，正如我們所言，引發金融市場出現系統性崩潰。例如，2008年金融危機以來🌾，美國航空業花費了390億美元的政府刺激資金用來回購公司股票，現在該行業卻因全球疫情導致旅遊業中斷而要向政府再申請500億美元的紓困資金💅。
此次疫情危機中，經濟低迷的根本原因在於全球經濟活動放緩🎰，而不局限於某一特定行業或國家。這也直接影響了實體經濟，消費、公司盈利✢、工資和就業都受到打擊🧗🏿♀️，而不是通過金融體系間接影響經濟。因此✵，為一個特定行業或少數幾家大銀行或公司提供資金，不太可能帶來有效🏰、迅速的復蘇🗓。此時👨🏿🦲，政府直接向企業和個人提供資金的能力就至關重要🏜。數字人民幣為政府提供了一個通過針對單個家庭的量化寬松政策直接刺激消費的機會👩💻。據估計，在美國由於現金流和財務規劃的限製，大約有40%的美國人難以支付400美元的意外開支💲。美國政府目前正在考慮一項緊急法案🤜，為美國公民提供1 000美元的基本生活補貼。
類似的救助計劃可以用來為企業提供運營資金和信貸🙎🏻♀️。數字人民幣的可編程功能可為現有貸款提供信貸補貼或現金減免。刺激計劃的資金直接存入受疫情沖擊的中小企業的數字人民幣賬戶/錢包，從而緩解經濟下行的沖擊。相反地，也可通過程序設定來限製不合理的資金使用👋，如房地產投機、P2P借貸或公司股票回購。這將引導資金按預期適當地刺激經濟➖。美國國會在疫情期間提出了一項計劃，其中包括使用數字美元來直接向有需要的市民發放現金補貼。這項法案提及🍵，資金會直接存入發給市民的數字錢包🤸🏿，作為傳統支票的一種替代🦘。立法最終沒有通過數字美元的提案。然而🚣🏿♂️，在中國，相關部門可以運用所需手段通過政策銀行執行這類計劃🙇🏿♀️，這樣的立法風險不會存在🤵🏼♀️，並可以立即提供救濟。相比之下🙅🏼♂️，間接刺激措施則需從央行向政策性銀行、商業銀行👨🏼⚖️、國有企業、中小企業和個人慢慢滲透🦹🏻♀️⛹🏻♂️。在每一個階段，資本都會面臨潛在的損失，其背後的原因包括交易成本🤺、無法高效調度資金、資金配置效率低下🏗、將資金分配到不需要的企業和個人🟫，以及時間上的浪費。“直達面向接收方”的刺激方案避免了所有上述成本。
事實上，生息的數字人民幣可以作為貨幣政策的另一種工具🏂🏼，從而避免動用更激進的貨幣政策工具🧕🏼，如量化寬松或其他直接的財政幹預。家庭和企業由此能夠對未來有更準確的預見性👨🏽⚕️，更好地預計未來長時期內的成本花銷。這樣的穩定性對低收入家庭和小型企業尤其有益🛷🍿，因為他們通常很難獲得精細的財務規劃建議或復雜的金融工具，因而難以憑借這些工具來對沖通脹等風險。以上述方式執行的貨幣政策和財政政策將會更加直接👩🦰🤾🏼♂️、透明和系統化🖤，從而提高整個貨幣體系的金融穩定性。
數字人民幣的全球影響及資產的數字化未來
最後，值得一提的是數字人民幣可用於跨境結算🦕，尤其是人民幣已經在“一帶一路”合作夥伴之中實現國際化🏋🏿♂️，這超過152個代表國覆蓋全球所有的高增長發展中國家☃️，占全球人口的65%和全球GDP的40%以上🎷。數字絲綢之路（Digital Silk Road）首次將這些發展中國家的人通過網絡聯系起來，其中許多是沒有銀行賬戶的個人或中小企業。這一群體代表了全球最後一些未被開發的高增長市場🏄，而其催生的在金融產品和電子商務領域的機會對中國企業非常有吸引力🚴🏼♂️。由於他們最先接觸到的國際可兌換貨幣將是數字人民幣，隨著更多國家與中國的經濟利益關系不斷擴大，這將鼓勵更多發展中國家從美元轉向人民幣▪️，以人民幣作為全球儲備貨幣。這將大大促進跨境交易——特別是流入中國的資本，可以提振中國內地經濟👦🏽，尤其是對聚焦產品生產及國際貿易合作的中小企業十分關鍵。有了數字人民幣🌾👨👩👧👦，國際遊客和其他到訪者也可以進入中國的移動支付服務生態系統👩，而無須首先在中國的銀行開戶🧛🏻♀️。數字人民幣所帶來的無摩擦全球支付基礎設施的網絡外部性（即網絡效應）的正動態，將對經濟增長和經濟韌性產生巨大的積極效應🙅🏻，不僅會對中國經濟產生巨大的經濟增長和彈性效應🛹👏🏻，也會對全球生態系統產生巨大的正效應。
全球數字經濟已成為整體經濟中日益重要的一部分。在過去二十年中💆🏼♀️，數字經濟占標普500指數(S&P500)的30%🤏🏼。根據中國信息通信技術研究院的數據，2017年中國數字經濟體量總計26萬億元人民幣🙎🏿♀️，約占全國GDP的32%↕️。中國18%的經濟增速大大超過了2017年6.9%的整體經濟增速。如果這種增長趨勢在未來延續✌🏻，到2035年，中國數字經濟的價值預計將達到16萬億美元🧖🏻。這些數字化經濟趨勢將會在此次疫情的背景下進一步凸顯🧘🏿♀️，因為疫情創造了遠程工作和在線商務模式的新常態。
區塊鏈等新技術的應用將推動下一次數字化革命，數字經濟的趨勢將大幅加速🙆🏽♀️，將任何具有價值的東西數字化🦸🏽♂️💂🏿♂️，並在處理這種價值的新模式下進行創新。數字資產化（digital assetization）是區塊鏈的第一個真正的殺手級應用，它將帶來極具顛覆性的數字金融和商業模式創新✊🏿🦸🏼♀️，允許任何生態系統或利益團體都能有效地創造定製化的激勵機製，以優化它們自身的數字經濟🧏🏻♀️🕊。區塊鏈技術能夠實現數據和數字資產在全球範圍內的可信共享，並將以前所未有的規模推動新的國際合作模式。據高盛(Goldman Sachs)預計，到2025年，數字金融將使新興市場整體GDP增加6%，總計3.7萬億美元，這等同於在全球範圍內增加一個像德國一樣大的經濟體，或增加一個超過整個非洲的經濟體🎅🏿。這一額外的GDP增長可以在全球各個經濟部門創造9 500萬個新的就業機會。
從上述優勢來看，數字人民幣是中國從正在顯現的全球金融經濟危機中復蘇和未來增長的關鍵🤸🏽♂️。它在本質上將成為一種“儲備貨幣”，為任何數字資產交易提供媒介🦀，同時也將為未來的數字資產計價🐺。隨著受監管的數字資產被廣泛應用，數字人民幣將會極大驅動數字經濟的發展🧑🏻🦼➡️。中國顯然已經在金融科技基礎設施領域引領全球🚵，這將使中國在數字資產領域同樣占據領導地位。數字資產的證券化和交易將有力驅動蓬勃發展的數字經濟，並進一步由大數據分析賦能🚶🏻♂️➡️、由依賴於數字數據的人工智能和智能合約實現自動化。數字人民幣的應用可使中國快速擺脫疫情和全球經濟危機的影響👨🏻🏭，開啟復蘇進程🧑🏽🏭，並在未來成為全球無可爭議的經濟強國。
The Digital RMB: The Key to China’s Economic Recovery and Future Global Economic Leadership
Charles Chang
Deputy Dean of Academics, Professor of Finance and Director of the Fintech Research Center at Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University
Michael Sung
Associate Professor of Practice in Finance at Fanhai International School of Finance and the co-director of the Fintech Research Center at Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University
We live in extraordinary times, where the current COVID-19 epidemic which started at the beginning of 2020 has developed into a global black swan event, causing massive suffering and disruption for societies world-wide. The epidemic exacerbated an already dangerously precarious economy, and could cascade into a rolling financial crisis throughout the world that cuts across all sectors of industry and levels of society. China has responded effectively and admirably to this Herculean challenge by implementing unprecedented quarantine measures restricting the movement.
These positive measures have been highly successful in effectively preventing the exponential spread of the disease in China. However, this has come at a great cost to the nation, as the resulting disruption in lost productivity and long-term economic contraction has yet to be fully assessed. China’s PMI has fallen to the lowest levels in recorded history as labor mobility, transportation linkages, supply chains, and retail activity across the country have been seriously affected by the outbreak. Large corporations and SMEs alike have face bleak prospects, with two-thirds of companies (even huge, well-resourced companies such as Haidilao) that were surveyed reporting that they have runways of less than just a few months of cash on hand. The imminent and systemic closure of large swathes of the economy combined with the inability to provide credit to the most fragile sectors of society could likely result in the largest economic depression the world has ever seen. Even as the country began relaxing travel restrictions and companies are opening up back for business in early April, the full scope of the challenge ahead to stimulate the country’s economic recovery remains an extremely challenging task.
One key potential weapon in the central government’s arsenal to allow the country to recover is the digital RMB that was announced by the PBOC at the end of 2019. As the world’s first central bank digital currency (CBDC) to be issued by a G20 nation, the digital RMB will instantly become the largest fully fiat-backed digital currency globally. It turns out that the extremely serendipitous timing in the deployment of the digital RMB can give the PBOC powerful new technology-enabled monetary and fiscal policy tools that can be effectively leveraged to stimulate the economy.
The Superiority of a Central Bank Digital Currency
A CBDC represents an electronic fiat liability that a central bank can use to settle payments. This concept of an electronic currency has existed for decades in the form of electronically settled with Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems that can adjust reserve balances that are held by commercial banks at the central bank. In the case of a CBDC, the central bank may issue fiat money that has the potential to be universally accessible and be used as a means of payment for the general population, not just as a settlement tool for commercial banks. As stated by PBOC, the digital RMB is initially meant to replace the M0 money supply, i.e. notes in circulation and other assets that are easily convertible into cash.
The three hallmarks of a currency are as a unit of account, store of value, and medium of exchange. A digital currency is superior to its physical banknote predecessor as well as related money instruments in each of these critical attributes. Currently, when ordinary people want to use central bank money to store value and medium of exchange, the only available option with no credit risks are paper-based banknotes. Therefore, they bear the costs of handling and storing banknotes safely (e.g. counting cash and depositing in a bank account). As a stable unit of account and store of value, the digital RMB represents a secure store of value as it is a fiat issued directly by the PBOC, without any of the risk associated with payment platforms from private companies and accounts at banks, all of whom can default in a crisis. As a medium of exchange, the digital RMB can be exchanged in a completely friction-free, costless manner as well as exchanged peer-to-peer (e.g. between digital wallets on mobile phones). As a practically costless medium of exchange, the digital RMB would significantly enhance the efficient and secure settlement of financial transactions, from retail transactions to cross-border payments.
The Digital RMB Improves Market Efficiency
The digital RMB effectively combines the efficiency of existing forms of digitized deposits with the additional capability for the peer-to-peer transaction of cash. China has already largely gone cashless due to the dominance of existing mobile and other digital payment systems in China. Having the digital RMB allows the inclusion of risk-free fiat currency to complete the full digitalization of money and payments in the country. These economic benefits would become more pronounced if the digital RMB is eventually rolled out to encompass bank deposits as well, in which case they could reduce the scale of the commercial banks’ credit intermediation. For example, models developed by the Bank of England have shown that the aggregate effect of CBDC issuance of 30% of the GDP has the potential to permanently raise GDP by as much as 3% due to reductions in transaction costs, real interest rates, and distortionary taxes .
At the same time, the introduction of the digital RMB into the ecosystem would provide a necessary alternative system for cashless payments which is currently dominated by the duopoly of Wechat Pay and Alipay(representing a combined market share of over 96% of overall online retail payments by transactional volume). This would provide banks and other financial institutions to be competitive to participate as alternative financial service providers, which is healthy for the robustness of a diversified payments ecosystem. The resulting financial sector would be more competitive in providing greater benefits to end users. It represents a reorganization of the existing third-party payment sector to include already-established financial institutions and creates opportunities to effectively monitor and regulate the industry, reducing overall system-wide financial risk. Indeed, with the digitization of fiat, there are opportunities for synergies with information technologies combining big data analytics and Blockchain. Entire histories for transactions would be available, providing massively more data to policymakers, including the ability to observe bad actors or to measure the economic response to shocks or to policy changes almost immediately. This would provide for significant enhancements to monitoring and regulation in a data-driven and real-time way.
Notably, the payment efficiencies of the digital RMB would have the most pronounced benefits for lower-income households and small businesses, the most vulnerable in economic downturns. Lower-income households tend to rely heavily on cash, and small businesses incur substantial costs for handling cash and interchange/exchange fees for processing payments such as via credit and debit cards. Given that the initial focus of the digital RMB is to be used to support small retail transactions, and will be separate and distinct from the nation’s bank deposits, it would be highly effective as a way to provide financial services efficiency and resilience for the underserved. The digital RMB could result in the reduction of many transaction costs and would radically increase financial inclusion for the rural and unbanked population by obviating the need of even owning a bank account. Additional opportunities for these constituents include the possibility to hold interest-bearing currency and to have access to micro-loans and credit facilities through online banking. The nationwide roll-out of the digital RMB would cater specifically to these underserved segments of society, notably the estimated 800 million people classified as China’s rural population.
As such, the introduction of the digital RMB would dramatically boost economic growth through efficiency gains and increased productivity from the most fragile segments of the population. Because of the transaction efficiencies, the velocity of money in circulation can be dramatically increased, thereby encouraging consumption and increasing volume of trade and economic activity. The digitization of fiat currency also allows a larger percentage of the money supply to be accounted for, which in turn would allow for more big data opportunities, such as credit risk analysis for low-default micro-loans. This would result in a large improvement in extending lending and credit facilities for the underserved over the existing system. As example, for many SMEs and private companies, currently the only way to access credit is through the shadow lending market, which is completely nontransparent to regulators and results in layers of middlemen seeking rents at usury rates. The introduction of the digital RMB would avoid these credit supply/demand market dynamics that can contribute to systemic crises.
The digital RMB is also designed to be pseudonymous (and hence pseudo-private). Put simply, it does not require any bank card, linked bank account, or even working internet connection to conduct small-scale digital RMB transfers. The digital cash would be held in a purpose-specific digital wallet. This makes it completely fungible and infrastructure-free, in a way unlike all other payment and remittance systems ranging from Alipay to Apple Pay to SWIFT. Again, this allows the digital RMB to directly serve those without access to traditional financial services. Larger transactions could require higher levels of KYC/AML verification and could be tracked by monitoring the fiat on-ramps and off-ramps to the accounts/wallets, akin to existing controls in the traditional banking industry. The digital RMB would reduce exposure to the risks of tax evasion, money laundering, and other illegal activities. In the long run, this would re-directed mis-appropriated money back to the productive economy.
The Digital RMB as a Monetary Policy Tool and Conduit for Economic Stimulus
In addition to the positive impact on payment efficiency, there is strong potential for banks’ fund disintermediation and improving the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, facilitating a systematic and transparent channel for the PBOC. This would give the PBOC powerful new instruments to conduct monetary policy with more direct connection to the real economy and with much more fine-grain controllability. As the digital RMB can be programmable, there are opportunities for digital innovation to enabling brand new forms of smart money. These functions may include various forms of meta-data and information processing that could allow the potential for smart contract-enabled automated execution of transactions. These new types of capabilities can facilitate transactions and efficient interactions much better than the static currencies of today. One such innovation is an interest-bearing digital RMB, which could provide a truly secure store of value. This type of digital RMB functionality could be distinct from and non-substitutable with bank deposits, providing an alternative policy tool for efficient deployment of monetary and fiscal policy. Such a tool could also be used as a stabilization measure for business cycles by controlling either the quantity or the price of digital currency in a counter-cyclical fashion.
Mu Changchun, the Director-General of the Institute of Digital Currency for the PBOC, has indicated that the digital RMB would not be initially interest bearing. However, there have long been strong arguments made by various economists that government-issued money should ideally bear the same rate of return as other risk-free assets in order to be a more useful medium of exchange. Implementation of these concepts was impossible with traditional paper banknotes, so modern money has been designed to steadily deflate rather than maintain true price stability. With a digital currency, the PBOC could create a truly stable store of value that would not lose value over time due to inflation. An appreciating/interest-bearing digital RMB could provide the ultimate stable unit of account and secure store of value which would facilitate it as a globally recognized medium of exchange. The real value of the digital RMB could be held stable over time relative to a price index/CPI basket, resulting in a new instrument with fundamental purchasing power stability.
Targeting true price stability would be substantively different from the current practice of inflation forecast targeting. Currently, monetary policy by most central banks around the world consists of aiming for positive inflation rates targets of around 2% or so. In the wake of the global financial crisis, some economists have advocated even raising those targets to provide more room for monetary policy flexibility. The lower bound on nominal interest rates has been a primary motivation for maintaining such a positive inflation buffer. With an interest-bearing digital RMB, there would no longer be a compelling need to maintain any inflation buffer since the PBOC could directly realize purchasing power stability. Thus, an interest-bearing function would contribute to greater macroeconomic stability.
Furthermore, when circumstances call for Quantitative Easing, which has been widely discussed/deployed during the COVID-19 Crisis, the digital RMB also has the potential to provide direct transmission of monetary and fiscal policies, with the ability to selectively bypass inefficient credit intermediation of banks. Since the Credit Crisis of 2007, massive quantitative easing stimulus plans across the major global economies resulted in inefficient allocations of credit that were of limited impact in stimulating real economic growth. QE was directed through banks, so the benefit of the stimulus accrues inequitably to the institutions that have access; namely the banks, state-owned enterprises, and large corporations. Furthermore, in that instance, capital was directed to banks because the root of the Crisis was ostensibly in the solvency of banks and the confidence of investors in the stability of the financial system. The Crisis was viewed as having started in the investment and poor operating behavior of the financial sector, which in turn impacted the real economy. QE sought to fill bank reserves and re-establish trust in the solvency of the banking system. Even so, in the U.S., exclusive access to easy credit by the top 1% of society has drastically exacerbated income inequality, destabilizing society. Banks and corporations have used this easy credit to systematically initiate massive stock buy-backs, essentially leveraging accounting tricks that consolidate wealth in the hands of company executives and equity holders but do not translate into more real growth in the economy. This has resulted in rampant stock and bond market excesses that are now rolling into the end of the current long-term debt cycle which is now causing the systemic crash in the markets as we speak. As example, the U.S. airline industry spent $39B in government stimulus for stock buy-backs since the 2008 crisis, and now is asking for another $50B bailout as they face bankruptcy because worldwide travel has halted from the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the COVID-19 crisis, the root of the downturn lies in a global slowdown in economic activity not siloed within a particular industry or country. It has impacted the real economy directly by destroying consumption, corporate earnings, wages, and employment rather than through the financial system. As a result, funding a particular industry or a small number of large banks or corporations will not likely lead to an effective, speedy recovery. Here, the ability of governments to provide funding directly to businesses and individuals is critical. The digital RMB provides an opportunity for the government to directly stimulate consumption through quantitative easing targeted to individual households. It is estimated that in the U.S., 40% of Americans would struggle to pay an unexpected $400 USD expense due to limitations in available cashflow and financial planning. The U.S. government is now considering an emergency bill to distribute U.S. citizens $1000 USD as essentially a universal basic income-style subsidy.
Similar relief programs can be used to provide operational funding and credit to businesses. The programmable functionality of the digital RMB could facilitate the provision of credit subsidies or cash relief to existing loans. Stimulus funds could be deposited directly into the digital RMB accounts/wallets of vulnerable SMEs, thereby cushioning the effects of a downturn. Conversely, it could be programmed with restrictions for non-desired use cases, such as real estate speculation, P2P lending, or corporate stock buybacks. This would direct funding to properly stimulate the economy as intended. In the United States, a program was proposed to Congress during the COVID-19 Crisis that included the use of digital dollar to deliver cash stipends directly to citizens in need. In that particular bill, funds direct deposited into digital wallet issued to citizens was included as an alternative to traditional checks. The legislation ultimately was not passed with the digital dollar provision. However, in China, where the relevant authorities would have the wherewithal to execute such a program through the policy banks, no such legislative risk would be present and could provide immediate relief. In contrast, indirect stimulus would have to trickle down from the central bank to policy banks, to commercial banks, to SOEs, to SMEs and individuals. At each stage, the capital faces potential losses from transactions costs, from the inability to effectively deploy, from inefficiencies in allocation of capital to enterprises or persons who do not need it, and from time wasted. Direct-to-recipient stimulus avoids all of these costs.
Indeed, an interest-bearing digital RMB could serve as alternative tool of monetary policy, thereby mitigating the need to deploy more brute-force monetary techniques such as quantitative easing or other direct fiscal interventions. This would allow households and businesses to have better visibility and ability to properly forecast their costs across long periods of time. Again, such stability could be particularly beneficial for lower-income households and small businesses, which typically have limited access to sophisticated financial planning advice or complex financial instruments that can help hedge against such inflationary risks. The monetary and fiscal policies conducted in this way would be more straightforward, transparent, and systematic, resulting in greater financial stability of the overall monetary system.
The Global Impact of the Digital RMB and the Digital Future of Assets
Finally, it is worth noting that the digital RMB could facility cross-border settlement, particularly as the RMB is internationalized to Belt and Road partners, now representing over 152 countries that cover all of the high-growth developing nations in the world and representing 65% of the world’s population and well over 40% of global GDP. The Digital Silk Road is connecting the people in these developing nations online for the first time, many of which are unbanked or small SMEs. These people represent the last untouched, high-growth markets in the world, and the financial products and e-commerce opportunities would be very enticing to Chinese companies. Their first exposure to an internationally exchangeable money would be in the form of digital RMB. which would encourage most of the developing world to shift from the U.S. dollar to the RMB as a global reserve currency as economic interests with China across the world expand. This would massively facilitate cross-border transactions, (specifically inbound capital flow into the country which could bolster the mainland economy) and for SMEs in particular who focus on producing goods and/or trading with international partners. The digital RMB would also allow international tourists and other visitors to access the nation’s mobile payment services ecosystem without the need for first needing to open a bank account with a Chinese bank. The positive dynamics of networks externalities (i.e. network effect) of the friction-free global payments infrastructure enabled by the digital RMB, will result in huge positive effects of economic growth and resilience not only for the China economy, but the global ecosystem as well.
The world’s digital economy has become an increasingly important part of the overall economy, now representing 30% of the S&P500 in the span of two decades. China's digital economy totaled 26 trillion RMB in 2017, accounting for around 32 percent of national GDP, according to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. Its 18% growth substantially outpaced the overall economy, which grew 6.9% in 2017. This growth trend is likely to continue in the future with the value of China's digital economy expected to hit US $16 trillion by 2035. These digital economy trends will be even more pronounced as the COVID-19 epidemic forces a new normal for working remotely and new online business models.
These trends will massively accelerate as adoption of new technologies such as blockchain will drive the next digitization revolution, this time providing the ability to digitize anything of value and innovating on the new modes of transacting that value. Digital assetization, the first true killer application of blockchain, enables radically disruptive digital financing and business model innovation that can allow any ecosystem or interest group to effectively create a customized incentive structure to optimize their own digital economy. Blockchain technologies will allow the ability for the trusted sharing of data and digital assets worldwide and for new modes of international collaboration on an unprecedented scale. Goldman Sachs indicates that digital finance could increase the GDPs of all emerging economies by 6 percent, or a total of $3.7 trillion, by 2025. This is the equivalent of adding an economy the size of Germany to the world, or one that’s larger than all the economies of Africa. This additional GDP could create up to 95 million new jobs across all sectors of the economy.
Given all the compelling advantages outlined above, the digital RMB represents the key for China’s recovery and future growth from the emerging global financial economic crisis. The digital RMB will massively drive the future of the digital economy along with the adoption of regulated digital assets by becoming essentially the “reserve currency” for translating the exchange of any digital asset pairs and for denominating the digital assets of the future. China is clearly already leading the world in the development of both the future financial and technology infrastructure that will allow the nation to take a leadership position in digital assets. This turbocharged digital economy will be driven by the securitization and exchange of digital assets, empowered by big data analytics and automated by AI and smart contracts which rely on digital data. With the deployment of the digital RMB, the nation can rapidly drive the Chinese economy past the current COVID-19 epidemic and global economic crises into recovery and propel itself into future as the world’s undisputed economic power.
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